According to research from
independent agency RPA, the number of viewers who watched programs live or as many as seven days
afterward with a DVR on the six
broadcast networks fell in every significant category—overall viewers,
adults 18 to 34, adults 18 to 49,
adults 25 to 49 and adults 25 to
54—between midseason 2007-2008
and midseason 2008-2009.
Meanwhile, viewership across 76
cable outlets increased in all of those
categories.
To complicate broadcast’s position further, ad buyers are increasingly trying to link their clients to
specific programs and pieces of
content—no matter where they
air. That plays into a theory long
Cable looks to
increase its viewer
share “at a
time of reduced
original-program
investment by
broadcast” and, in
doing so, could boost
its ability to notch
price increases.
espoused by Michael Nathanson, a
media analyst at Bernstein
Research. Examining this issue in
a September research note, Mr.
Nathanson said the broadcast
industry “has managed to survive
due to the premium paid for its
relative mass reach, which has
been maintained as audiences
leave.”
But the analyst said he sees
“great risk going forward regarding
broadcast’s ability to sustain its
pricing advantage.” With more
cable outlets devoting resources to
high-quality programs, such as
“The Closer,” “Rescue Me” and
“Army Wives,” cable looks to
increase its viewer share “at a time
of reduced original-program investment by broadcast” and, in doing
so, could boost its ability to notch
price increases. Mr. Nathanson estimated that if the Big Four broadcast
New Balance
From Page 4
as the first running brand to offer
different widths of its shoes.
Beyond that, New Balance is
devoting a greater percentage of its
marketing budget—which will be
even with 2008—to in-store efforts,
which will include signage, shelf
talkers and even appearances by
“New Balance Total Fit” specialists.
The retail efforts will affect not only
New Balance’s own stores but also
retailers and small specialty stores.
Ms. Delaney said that, having
hired BBDO in October 2007, the
networks continue to lose 5% to
6% in viewers each year and big
cable outlets such as TNT, TBS,
USA, ESPN and Spike can grow at
that same rate, broadcast would
have just one and a half times the
reach of cable by the 2012-2013 season.
Cable outlets have become
more aggressive about touting
their offerings. ESPN and Time
Warner’s Turner suite of cable
channels have held their presentations for the annual “upfront”
sales season during the same week
as the broadcasters. Last year,
Turner offered a “broadcast
replacement” program that would
give marketers ad time in the best
of Turner’s programs, such as
“The Closer,” but none of the less-er-performing slots in other dayparts and programs.
Meanwhile, several broadcast
networks seem to be adopting practices that have helped cable outlets
achieve success. The CW may be a
broadcaster but has a narrow focus
on young women. Its flagship
show, “Gossip Girl,” brings in a
rabid audience. Advertisers know
what they get, but they also know
they aren’t getting the teeming
masses.
NBC’s behavior in recent
months is also prompting questions. The network is having a
tough time getting new scripted
fare off the ground, as evidenced by
middling reaction to programs such
as “Knight Rider,” “Kings” and
“Crusoe.” Next fall, NBC will take
things one step further, running a
five-days-a-week talk show from
Jay Leno in its 10 p.m. slot—
essentially ceding ratings to dramas that
will run on ABC and CBS.
During a question-and-answer
session March 18, NBC Universal
CEO Jeff Zucker defended the Leno
decision, saying that rivals have
already devised a system with fewer
hours of programming without
being castigated for it. “Nobody
thinks Fox is any less of a network
or the CW. They don’t denigrate
that because it’s only two hours a
night.”
He also told the assemblage the
broadcast upfront this year would
move slowly, while cable would
show strength. One NBC Universal
property, the USA cable channel,
“is now competing with the broadcast networks,” he said.
marketer was “rushed” in preparing the campaign and focused far
more on advertising than point-of-sale execution, which hurt results.
New Balance is also sharpening
its media buying, restricting it to
Wednesday through Saturday in
order to capitalize on the lead-up to
the weekend, when most consumers
shop for shoes. It’s also scaling back
buys with broadcast outlets Fox and
CBS in order to concentrate more
media firepower on ESPN. “We
want to have a stronger voice on
fewer platforms,” Ms. Delaney said.
New Balance spent $27.3 million
on measured media in 2008, nearly
twice its 2007 total of $14.4 million,
Media-buying agency RPA analyzed
viewing averages by age groups
across the six broadcast networks—
ABC, CBS, NBC, Fox, CW and
MyNetworkTV—and the 76 measured,
ad-supported cable networks to see
where audience shifts were
happening. The results indicate that
cable is adding viewers faster than
broadcast is losing them.
AGGREGATE LIVE-PLUS-SEVEN-DAYS
PRIME-TIME VIEWING AVERAGES
A T MID-SEASON (IN MILLIONS)
VIEWERS 2+
Broadcast
Cable
2007-08 2008-09
42.99
51.45
40.59
56.78
Total audience 94.44
97.37
change in audience
+3%
ADULTS 18-49
2007-08 2008-09
Broadcast
Cable
19. 21
22.50
17.62
24.39
Total audience 41.71
42.01
change in audience
+1%
ADULTS 18-34
2007-08 2008-09
Broadcast
Cable
8. 25
11. 15
7.62
11.81
Total audience 19.40
19.43
change in audience
No change
ADULTS 25-49
2007-08 2008-09
Broadcast
Cable
16.45
17.86
15. 20
19.73
Total audience 34.31
34.93
change in audience
+2%
ADULTS 25-54
2007-08 2008-09
Broadcast
Cable
20.71
21.77
19.39
24. 19
Total audience 42.48
43.58
change in audience
+3%
Sources: Nielsen NTI Planners’ Report
according to TNS Media
Intelligence. Those figures do not
include internet spending, a significant channel for New Balance.
That’s smart strategy, said
SportsOneSource footwear analyst
Matt Powell, but the brand still
faces a steep challenge from a slew
of strong competitors, and years of
poor marketing and positioning.
Mr. Powell said years of providing
basic shoes at different widths at ever-cheaper price points to retailers has
given the brand a somewhat generic
label that’s hard to shake. “There’s
some wisdom in what they’re trying
to do, but they’ve let it become a
commodity of sorts,” he said.
uct right. And until America has a
viable product—in this case, a
signed-sealed-and-delivered budget stabilizing the job and housing
markets—it‘s probably wrong-headed to ask its citizens to start
spending more than they are.
foolhardy. “It’s not going to be an
advertising campaign that’s going
to get people to spend or to invest or
whatever,” said ANACEO Bob
Liodice. “It’s going to be the effect
of government policies that’s going
to convince people to spend money
or not.”
Groups such as the Ad Council
and Association of National
Advertisers aren’t ruling out a “get
the economy moving” effort in the
future, but they would take a long
and skeptical look if someone, such
as the Obama administration, asked.
President Barack Obama appears
to agree. Besides the bully pulpit, he
has access to perhaps the most
sophisticated marketing apparatus
any president has ever brought to
the White House, including a
13. 2 million-name e-mail database.
The subject apparently hadn’t
been broached until Ad Age asked
the Ad Council, the most obvious
industry group to shepherd such an
effort. And the reception was decidedly lukewarm to getting people in
precarious financial situations to
spend what they have left.
And last week he used it to
e-mail a video link to supporters,
via the Democratic National
Committee, urging them to pressure lawmakers to pass his budget
as the foundation for long-term
prosperity. In it, he added: “We
can’t go back to an economy based
on reckless speculation and spending beyond our means.”
“It’s really hard for me to wrap
my head around what would be
an overarching message to stimulate the economy,” said Peggy
Conlan, CEO of the Ad Council.
The Ad Council does have public-service announcements out
right now regarding the
economy, but none is
exactly stimulatory. In
fact, it’s the opposite.
As a member of the Ad
Council’s executive committee, Mr.
Liodice said he believes the group
would be inclined to support an
economic-recovery message from
the Obama administration, though
he has no idea what the message
would be.
One backed by the
American Institute of
Certified Public
Accountants encourages people to save
money. Seeing as the
The Conference
Board’s Consumer
Confidence Index hit
another low in February
for the 42 years of its existence, but Lynn Franco,
director of the group’s
research center, said she
doubts an ad campaign
could do much to change
the graph. “It generally takes something tangible to change consumer
confidence,” she said. “And right
now that would be the job market.”
THEY DIDN’T: 1976
failed effort.
U.S. personal saving rate climbed
from near zero in the first quarter
to 3.2% in the fourth quarter of
last year, maybe it’s working.
An effort in conjunction with
the Treasury Department aims to
alert young people to the need to
keep their credit under control.
Nothing there to get the cash registers ringing, either.
Another is a campaign on preventing foreclosures, which in the
two-plus years it’s been around has
prompted more than 200,000 counseling sessions for people to do
workouts with lenders, Ms. Conlon
said. “What we’re doing right
now,” she said, “is really more
helping people deal with the economy rather than stimulating it.”
But declines in spending and
confidence aren’t entirely based on
structural factors, said Gus
Faucher, director of macroeconomics for Moody’s Economy.com. For
most consumers right now, it
makes sense to save more money,
though he said he’s not sure they
need any ads to encourage that.
Fear of job losses is the major factor, he said.
Though the Obama administration hasn’t brought up the idea
of a stimulatory campaign, the
council would listen, she said. But
she didn’t guarantee participation.
“It would have to be responsible,
effective and authentic,” Ms.
Conlon said, adding that she has
doubts a campaign could clear
those hurdles right now.
“However, there are consumers
who are still doing well, whose jobs
are secure, who have cut back on
spending, and that is weighing on
the economy,” Mr. Faucher said.
“You want those folks to open up
their purse strings a little bit.”
The Ad Council was part of a
campaign that flew in the face of
economic headwinds in the past:
Gerald Ford’s “Whip Inflation
Now” effort in 1976. “It was
deemed to be a miserable failure,”
Ms. Conlon said. “The WIN buttons he wore and all of those things
became a joke.”
The severe hit high-end retailers such as Nordstrom have taken
while retailers such as Walmart
fare better is one sign of the extent
to which a pullback by upper-income consumers has hit the
economy particularly hard since
the fourth quarter, he said.
Conceivably, a well-crafted campaign could encourage some to
spend again, he said, though it goes
against the grain of huge losses in
their net worth from the collapse of
financial and housing markets.
The Association of National
Advertisers, too, seems to view an
effort to get people spending as
And there’s the rub. For now,
it’s probably up to individual marketers to show that they can deliver
great value for the consumer—and
aren’t all about lining the pockets of
their senior executives.
